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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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