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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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