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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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