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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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