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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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