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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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