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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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