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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 22 November 23
INDIA: GOVERNMENT PLANS 1.4 BILLION TONNE COAL OUTPUT BY 2027 - LIVEMINT
The Union coal ministry on Monday announced plans to increase India’s coal production to 1.404 billion tonne by 2027, with an eye to further ...
Wednesday, 22 November 23
OBLIGATION. INDONESIA AIMS TO START COLLECTING LEVIES FROM COAL MINERS IN JANUARY - REUTERS
Indonesia plans to start collecting levies from coal miners in January to be used to compensate miners who sell coal to the state utility at lower ...
Tuesday, 21 November 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS’ CAPACITY UTILISATION WILL IMPROVE TO 65% THIS FISCAL: - CRISIL
Coal-based thermal power units’ plant load factor (PLF) or capacity utilisation will improve to 65 percent in the current fiscal year despite ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
CAPITAL PRODUCT PARTNERS L.P. ANNOUNCES TRANSFORMATIVE TRANSACTION INCLUDING THE ACQUISITION OF 11 NEWBUILD LNG CARRIERS FOR $3.1 BILLION
Capital Product Partners L.P. announced that it has entered into an umbrella agreement (the “Umbrella Agreement”) with Capital Maritime ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
COAL INDIA BEATS Q2 PROFIT VIEW ON HIGH POWER DEMAND AMID WEAK MONSOON - REUTERS
Coal India on Friday reported better-than-expected second-quarter profit, helped by high power demand and boosted production amid a weak monsoon.
...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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