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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 17 July 23
APPROVED AMMONIA-FUELED CONTAINERSHIP - BENEFITS AND RISKS: REED SMITH
Following the news in Offshore Energy that Korea Maritime Consultants has secured approval in principle from the American Bureau of Shipping for it ...
Friday, 14 July 23
CLEAN COAL USE KEY TO DEEP CUTS IN EMISSIONS, STABLE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY - CHINA DAILY
China must push for the clean use of coal and step up integration of the dirty fuel with carbon capture, utilization and storage to achieve sustain ...
Thursday, 13 July 23
VIETNAM'S COAL EMISSIONS PRIMED FOR SURGE AFTER IMPORTS JUMP - REUTERS
Vietnam’s thermal power emissions are primed for a steep climb this summer after the country’s imports of thermal coal soared to their ...
Monday, 26 June 23
COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION UP IN 2022 - EUROSTAT
In 2022, EU coal production and consumption continued to increase, reaching 349 million tonnes (+5% compared with the previous year) and 454 millio ...
Wednesday, 21 June 23
QATAR STRIKES SECOND BIG LNG SUPPLY DEAL WITH CHINA - REUTERS
Qatar on Tuesday secured its second large gas supply deal with a Chinese state-controlled company in less than a year, putting Asia clearly ahead i ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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