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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
Sunday, 09 April 23
CHINA’S BUSINESS INCOME REBOUND POINTS TO IMPROVING ECONOMY: OFFICIAL - XINHUA
Chinese businesses have posted a strong rebound in sales revenue since the beginning of this year in the latest signal of an improving economy.
...
Sunday, 09 April 23
COAL INDIA TO BOOST SUPPLIES TO INDUSTRIES AS UTILITIES’ INVENTORIES RISE - REUTERS
Coal India Ltd will increase supplies to industries, the world’s largest coal miner said on Wednesday as fuel inventories at utilities run by ...
Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourag ...
Sunday, 26 March 23
EUROPE’S RUSH TO LNG COULD TURN INTO 'WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE AND UNNECESSARY INSURANCE POLICY'- CNBC
Europe’s rapid buildout of liquefied natural gas infrastructure is on track to far exceed demand by the end of the decade, according to new r ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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