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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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