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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 08 January 23
ELEVATED COAL PRICE A DRAG ON MARGINS OF DOMESTIC BASE METAL PLAYERS: ICRA
The increased price of coal continue to be a drag on the margin of domestic base metal players with no immediate relief in sight, rating agency ICR ...
Monday, 02 January 23
CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK BY 2035: REPORT - REUTERS
China’s primary energy consumption is likely to peak at nearly 6.03 billion tonnes of standard coal between 2030 and 2035, refining giant Chi ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND LIKELY TO PEAK BETWEEN 2030-2035: MINISTER - ANI
The demand for coal in India will continue and is likely to peak between 2030-2035, Union Minister of Coal, Mines, and Parliamentary Affairs Pralha ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
RIO TINTO AND PARTNERS COULD RECEIVE AS MUCH AS $450M IN GOVERNMENT COMPENSATION FOR COAL PRICE CAP - THE GUARDIAN
Compensation payments for the Gladstone power plant remain the sticking point in the federal government’s coal price cap compensation negotia ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS CRATER BY 54% IN THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE EU'S EMBARGO AMID A SHORTAGE OF TANKERS WILLING TO CARRY CARGOES - BUSINESS INSIDER
Since the European Union imposed its seaborne crude sanctions, Russian oil exports have tumbled by more than half, according to data compiled by Bl ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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