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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 08 January 23
ELEVATED COAL PRICE A DRAG ON MARGINS OF DOMESTIC BASE METAL PLAYERS: ICRA
The increased price of coal continue to be a drag on the margin of domestic base metal players with no immediate relief in sight, rating agency ICR ...
Monday, 02 January 23
CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK BY 2035: REPORT - REUTERS
China’s primary energy consumption is likely to peak at nearly 6.03 billion tonnes of standard coal between 2030 and 2035, refining giant Chi ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND LIKELY TO PEAK BETWEEN 2030-2035: MINISTER - ANI
The demand for coal in India will continue and is likely to peak between 2030-2035, Union Minister of Coal, Mines, and Parliamentary Affairs Pralha ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
RIO TINTO AND PARTNERS COULD RECEIVE AS MUCH AS $450M IN GOVERNMENT COMPENSATION FOR COAL PRICE CAP - THE GUARDIAN
Compensation payments for the Gladstone power plant remain the sticking point in the federal government’s coal price cap compensation negotia ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS CRATER BY 54% IN THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE EU'S EMBARGO AMID A SHORTAGE OF TANKERS WILLING TO CARRY CARGOES - BUSINESS INSIDER
Since the European Union imposed its seaborne crude sanctions, Russian oil exports have tumbled by more than half, according to data compiled by Bl ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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