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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 08 January 23
ELEVATED COAL PRICE A DRAG ON MARGINS OF DOMESTIC BASE METAL PLAYERS: ICRA
The increased price of coal continue to be a drag on the margin of domestic base metal players with no immediate relief in sight, rating agency ICR ...
Monday, 02 January 23
CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK BY 2035: REPORT - REUTERS
China’s primary energy consumption is likely to peak at nearly 6.03 billion tonnes of standard coal between 2030 and 2035, refining giant Chi ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND LIKELY TO PEAK BETWEEN 2030-2035: MINISTER - ANI
The demand for coal in India will continue and is likely to peak between 2030-2035, Union Minister of Coal, Mines, and Parliamentary Affairs Pralha ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
RIO TINTO AND PARTNERS COULD RECEIVE AS MUCH AS $450M IN GOVERNMENT COMPENSATION FOR COAL PRICE CAP - THE GUARDIAN
Compensation payments for the Gladstone power plant remain the sticking point in the federal government’s coal price cap compensation negotia ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS CRATER BY 54% IN THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE EU'S EMBARGO AMID A SHORTAGE OF TANKERS WILLING TO CARRY CARGOES - BUSINESS INSIDER
Since the European Union imposed its seaborne crude sanctions, Russian oil exports have tumbled by more than half, according to data compiled by Bl ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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