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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 15 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While observing the ship repair market very close to the end of the year, we are confident that shipyards worldwide are entering a new era. The nex ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
STRONG COAL PRICES SUPPORT ROBUST EARNINGS AT INDONESIAN COAL MINERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects cash flow generation at Indonesian coal miners to remain strong in 2023, based on its forecast for coal prices to remain high ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
BIMCO CII CLAUSE FINALLY RELEASED: DOES IT MAKE ANY SENSE OF CCI? - WFW
WHAT IS CII?
The new International Maritime Organisation’s (“IMO’s”) Carbon Intensity Indicator (“CII”) cer ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
COAL BASE RAMPS UP ENERGY SUPPLY FOR WINTER NEEDS - XINHUA
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China’s leading coal production base, has kicked its production into high gear to meet heating needs as col ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
AUSTRALIA TO CAP PRICES OF COAL, GAS TO DRIVE DOWN ENERGY BILLS - REUTERS
Australia will cap coal and gas prices for a year in a bid to shave utility bills for households and businesses hit by soaring costs because of the ...
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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