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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 15 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While observing the ship repair market very close to the end of the year, we are confident that shipyards worldwide are entering a new era. The nex ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
STRONG COAL PRICES SUPPORT ROBUST EARNINGS AT INDONESIAN COAL MINERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects cash flow generation at Indonesian coal miners to remain strong in 2023, based on its forecast for coal prices to remain high ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
BIMCO CII CLAUSE FINALLY RELEASED: DOES IT MAKE ANY SENSE OF CCI? - WFW
WHAT IS CII?
The new International Maritime Organisation’s (“IMO’s”) Carbon Intensity Indicator (“CII”) cer ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
COAL BASE RAMPS UP ENERGY SUPPLY FOR WINTER NEEDS - XINHUA
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China’s leading coal production base, has kicked its production into high gear to meet heating needs as col ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
AUSTRALIA TO CAP PRICES OF COAL, GAS TO DRIVE DOWN ENERGY BILLS - REUTERS
Australia will cap coal and gas prices for a year in a bid to shave utility bills for households and businesses hit by soaring costs because of the ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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