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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 30 November 22
INDONESIA’S BUMI RESOURCES TARGETS 2023 COAL OUTPUT OF 80 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
Indonesian coal miner PT Bumi Resources Tbk BUMI.JKis eyeing a 10% increase in output to 80 million tonnes next year amid expectations for more fav ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
TANKERS: LONGER HAULS TO SUPPORT CONTINUED STRENGTH - BIMCO
Highlights
A rebound in the dirty tanker trade has led the Baltic Exchange Dirty Index (BDTI) to increase by 64% since our last report from mid ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping, although a conservative and innovation adverse industry, is currently in a transition period of digital transformation. According to a su ...
Tuesday, 29 November 22
INDIA TO RECEIVE FIRST LNG CARGO FROM INDONESIA’S TANGGUH LNG - REUTERS
India will receive its first cargo from Indonesia’s Tangguh liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant at the Dahej terminal on Monday, according to a ...
Tuesday, 29 November 22
SEABORNE COAL FLOWS IN 2022 - SIGNAL
This year is crucial for the energy mix in European countries, as the EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia. It is important to emphasize that the ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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