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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 30 November 22
INDONESIA’S BUMI RESOURCES TARGETS 2023 COAL OUTPUT OF 80 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
Indonesian coal miner PT Bumi Resources Tbk BUMI.JKis eyeing a 10% increase in output to 80 million tonnes next year amid expectations for more fav ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
TANKERS: LONGER HAULS TO SUPPORT CONTINUED STRENGTH - BIMCO
Highlights
A rebound in the dirty tanker trade has led the Baltic Exchange Dirty Index (BDTI) to increase by 64% since our last report from mid ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping, although a conservative and innovation adverse industry, is currently in a transition period of digital transformation. According to a su ...
Tuesday, 29 November 22
INDIA TO RECEIVE FIRST LNG CARGO FROM INDONESIA’S TANGGUH LNG - REUTERS
India will receive its first cargo from Indonesia’s Tangguh liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant at the Dahej terminal on Monday, according to a ...
Tuesday, 29 November 22
SEABORNE COAL FLOWS IN 2022 - SIGNAL
This year is crucial for the energy mix in European countries, as the EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia. It is important to emphasize that the ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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