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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equ ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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