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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equ ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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