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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 05 October 22
BUNKER PRICES DOWN AGAIN; IS THERE MORE TO COME? - INTEGR8 FUELS
It’s the economy…..”
VLSFO prices are now back to levels at the start of this year. After all the extremes of thi ...
Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russ ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in thei ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
OIL PRICES COULD SOON RETURN TO $100 AS OPEC+ CONSIDERS ‘HISTORIC’ CUT, ANALYSTS SAY - CNBC
An influential alliance of some of the world’s most powerful oil producers is reportedly considering their largest output cut since the start ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGE AGAIN TO RECORD HIGH
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference reached another record high in October as Russia's war in Ukraine continues to spark a surge in c ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
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