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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 05 October 22
BUNKER PRICES DOWN AGAIN; IS THERE MORE TO COME? - INTEGR8 FUELS
It’s the economy…..”
VLSFO prices are now back to levels at the start of this year. After all the extremes of thi ...
Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russ ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in thei ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
OIL PRICES COULD SOON RETURN TO $100 AS OPEC+ CONSIDERS ‘HISTORIC’ CUT, ANALYSTS SAY - CNBC
An influential alliance of some of the world’s most powerful oil producers is reportedly considering their largest output cut since the start ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGE AGAIN TO RECORD HIGH
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference reached another record high in October as Russia's war in Ukraine continues to spark a surge in c ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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