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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 19 September 22
BUMA AUSTRALIA AWARDED A$400 MILLION CONTRACT EXTENSION BY BMA FOR GOONYELLA PROJECT
Press Release – PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. (the "Company") announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
CHINA WARNS COAL COMPANIES AGAINST DUAL CONTRACTS, KEEP PRICES STABLE - REUTERS
China’s state economic planner warned coal companies operating at ports in the Bohai Bay region to comply with their long-term contracts to k ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has i ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
...
Friday, 16 September 22
WHEN IS A VESSEL'S INCOME EARNING CAPACITY AT RISK? 'CONTROLLED INCOME CAN BE A KEY OF SUCCESS' - MARASCO MARINE
Managing marine risks is not an easy task, which requires special knowledge and expertise on the subject per se. Customarily, big ship management c ...
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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