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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 19 September 22
BUMA AUSTRALIA AWARDED A$400 MILLION CONTRACT EXTENSION BY BMA FOR GOONYELLA PROJECT
Press Release – PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. (the "Company") announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
CHINA WARNS COAL COMPANIES AGAINST DUAL CONTRACTS, KEEP PRICES STABLE - REUTERS
China’s state economic planner warned coal companies operating at ports in the Bohai Bay region to comply with their long-term contracts to k ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has i ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
...
Friday, 16 September 22
WHEN IS A VESSEL'S INCOME EARNING CAPACITY AT RISK? 'CONTROLLED INCOME CAN BE A KEY OF SUCCESS' - MARASCO MARINE
Managing marine risks is not an easy task, which requires special knowledge and expertise on the subject per se. Customarily, big ship management c ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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