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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 09 September 22
GREECE WILL KEEP COAL-FIRED PLANTS RUNNING FOR LONGER AMID GAS CRISIS - REUTERS
Greece will keep seven coal-fired plants running for longer than previously planned as European countries adjust to a cut in gas flows coming from ...
Friday, 09 September 22
CHINA'S DROUGHT INTENSIFIES GLOBAL COAL SHORTAGE - REUTERS
China’s drought has sent coal prices surging as traders anticipate the lack of hydroelectric generation will force it to burn more coal to me ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MOODY.S AFFIRMS ABM INVESTAMA'S B1 RATINGS FOLLOWING PLANNED MINORITY INVESTMENT IN COAL MINER; OUTLOOK STABLE
Moody's Investors Service has affirmed ABM Investama Tbk (P.T.)'s B1 corporate family rating (CFR), along with the B1 rating on its senior ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. Mor ...
Friday, 02 September 22
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIPS SLIGHTLY IN SEPTEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for September delivery drops 0.74 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price R ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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