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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 09 September 22
GREECE WILL KEEP COAL-FIRED PLANTS RUNNING FOR LONGER AMID GAS CRISIS - REUTERS
Greece will keep seven coal-fired plants running for longer than previously planned as European countries adjust to a cut in gas flows coming from ...
Friday, 09 September 22
CHINA'S DROUGHT INTENSIFIES GLOBAL COAL SHORTAGE - REUTERS
China’s drought has sent coal prices surging as traders anticipate the lack of hydroelectric generation will force it to burn more coal to me ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MOODY.S AFFIRMS ABM INVESTAMA'S B1 RATINGS FOLLOWING PLANNED MINORITY INVESTMENT IN COAL MINER; OUTLOOK STABLE
Moody's Investors Service has affirmed ABM Investama Tbk (P.T.)'s B1 corporate family rating (CFR), along with the B1 rating on its senior ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. Mor ...
Friday, 02 September 22
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIPS SLIGHTLY IN SEPTEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for September delivery drops 0.74 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price R ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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