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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 20 August 22
KOSPO TO IMPORT 240000 MT OF MIN 4400 KCAL/KG NCV STEAM COAL FOR OCTOBER;LOADING FROM RUSSIAN PORTS NOT ALLOWED
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 240,000 MT of min 4,400kcal/kg to max. 4,999 kcal/kg NC ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
INDIAN COMPANIES SWAPPING DOLLAR FOR ASIAN CURRENCIES TO BUY RUSSIAN COAL - REUTERS
Indian companies are using Asian currencies more often to pay for Russian coal imports, according to customs documents and industry sources, avoidi ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
LNG: MAJOR INVESTMENT AND EXPANSION PHASE, DOUBLING OF LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY BY 2028 PROJECTED - CLARKSONS
Clarksons Research have released the latest version of their long standing annual review, LNG Trade & Transport, on to Shipping Intelligence Ne ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
UNAFFORDABLE LNG PRICES UNDERMINE RAPID DEMAND GROWTH FORECASTS IN KEY ASIAN MARKETS - IEEFA
Sustained high prices may accelerate downward pressures on Asian LNG demand, clouding long-term industry outlooks
The global liquefi ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
CHINA'S COAL-RICH SHANXI MAKES STRIDES IN HIGH-QUALITY DEVELOPMENT - XINHUA
Shanxi, a major coal-producing province in north China, has made continuous advances in high-quality development over the past decade, according to ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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