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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 20 August 22
KOSPO TO IMPORT 240000 MT OF MIN 4400 KCAL/KG NCV STEAM COAL FOR OCTOBER;LOADING FROM RUSSIAN PORTS NOT ALLOWED
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 240,000 MT of min 4,400kcal/kg to max. 4,999 kcal/kg NC ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
INDIAN COMPANIES SWAPPING DOLLAR FOR ASIAN CURRENCIES TO BUY RUSSIAN COAL - REUTERS
Indian companies are using Asian currencies more often to pay for Russian coal imports, according to customs documents and industry sources, avoidi ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
LNG: MAJOR INVESTMENT AND EXPANSION PHASE, DOUBLING OF LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY BY 2028 PROJECTED - CLARKSONS
Clarksons Research have released the latest version of their long standing annual review, LNG Trade & Transport, on to Shipping Intelligence Ne ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
UNAFFORDABLE LNG PRICES UNDERMINE RAPID DEMAND GROWTH FORECASTS IN KEY ASIAN MARKETS - IEEFA
Sustained high prices may accelerate downward pressures on Asian LNG demand, clouding long-term industry outlooks
The global liquefi ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
CHINA'S COAL-RICH SHANXI MAKES STRIDES IN HIGH-QUALITY DEVELOPMENT - XINHUA
Shanxi, a major coal-producing province in north China, has made continuous advances in high-quality development over the past decade, according to ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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