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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 06 August 22
SUMITOMO Q1 PROFIT RISES 45% ON STRONGER PRICES OF COAL, NICKEL - REUTERS
Japanese trading house Sumitomo Corp 8053.T said on Wednesday its net profit for the April-June quarter rose 45% to a record thanks to higher price ...
Saturday, 06 August 22
GERMANY'S ENERGY U-TURN: COAL INSTEAD OF GAS - DEUTSCHE WELLE
Berlin has realized it will never again import as much energy from Russia as before the Ukraine war. So the challenge is to wean Germany off its de ...
Saturday, 30 July 22
NUANCES OF FORCE MAJEURE CLAUSE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Knowledge to Elevate
In NKD Maritime Limited v. Bart Maritime (No 2) Inc (Shagang Giant) [2022] EWHC 1615 (Comm), Bart Maritime (No 2) Inc (th ...
Saturday, 30 July 22
AEMO URGES QUICKER SHIFT TO RENEWABLES AMID COAL FAILURES AND SOARING FOSSIL FUEL COSTS
The Australian Energy Market Operator has called for an accelerated shift to wind and solar, backed up by batteries and other storage, as a devasta ...
Friday, 29 July 22
GLENCORE TO SUPPLY COAL TO NIPPON STEEL AT $375 PER TON - BLOOMBERG
Glencore Plc, agreed to supply coal to Nippon Steel at one of the highest prices ever paid by the Japan Bloomberg reported on July 27.
...
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
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