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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 26 May 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The newbuilding market activity has been significantly positive from a dry bulk owner perspective during the first half of 2022. Indeed, the contra ...
Wednesday, 18 May 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DROPPED 4.42% IN MAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for May delivery drops 4.42 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price Referen ...
Thursday, 12 May 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Almost through half of the year, the overall shipping market continues to show signs of healthiness, after plenty of festivities and holidays that ...
Wednesday, 27 April 22
EUROPEAN UNION'S LNG IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
In 2021, the European Union (27) was the third largest seaborne importer of LNG in the world, with a 15.8% share.
It followed Mainla ...
Tuesday, 26 April 22
CHINA'S APPETITE FOR BAUXITE HITS NEW RECORD AS Q1 IMPORTS JUMP 15.4% Y/Y - BIMCO
Bauxite shipments arriving in China hit new record levels in the first quarter of 2022 and grew at an average annual rate of 12.8% between 2017 and ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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