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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 21 March 22
A FORCE MAJEURE TO BE RECKONED WITH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Sanctions cause payment confusion
This dispute in MUR Shipping BV v. RTI Ltd [2022] EWHC 467 (Comm) related to an owner’s purported exercis ...
Monday, 21 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 10.3 PCT IN FIRST TWO MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted fast growth in the first two months of 2022, while coal imports continued to shrink, official data showed.
...
Tuesday, 15 March 22
INDUSTRY VETERANS & ORGANIZATIONS HONOURED WITH THE PRESTIGIOUS SHIPTEK INTERNATIONAL AWARDS 2022
Press Release: The 15th edition of the prestigious ShipTek International Conference & Awards 2022 concluded successfully from March 7th - 8th 2 ...
Tuesday, 15 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT GROWS TO STABILIZE MARKET SUPPLY - XINHUA
China’s coal market has seen growth in output since late February amid the country’s efforts to stabilize production and ensure supply, ...
Tuesday, 08 March 22
RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT ADDS IMPETUS TO ASIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Clean energy alternatives are a crucial hedge against future disruptions in global commodity markets
Russia’s invasion of Ukra ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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