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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 17 February 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES TO EASE ON END OF INDONESIA EXPORT BAN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings-Shanghai/Singapore-14 February 2022: APAC thermal coal prices are likely to come under pressure in the near term due to seasonally we ...
Tuesday, 15 February 22
IS ANOTHER COAL SHORTAGE CRISIS LOOMING OVER INDIA? - BUSINESS STANDARD
In December last year, the Federation of Indian Mineral Industries (FIMI) shot off a letter to the Prime Minister claiming that the coal crisis was ...
Tuesday, 15 February 22
THERMAL COAL'S RECORD PRICE RUN MAY END UP ITS OWN WORST ENEMY - REUTERS
The price of benchmark Australian thermal coal rose last week to trade near record highs, providing a short-term boost to producers but increasing ...
Thursday, 10 February 22
INDONESIA: COAL EXPORT BAN - SKULD
Indonesia's coal export ban in the light of force majeure and off-hire clauses
In January 2022, Indonesia, the world's biggest exporte ...
Thursday, 10 February 22
EIA ANALYSIS CONSIDERS DIFFERENT OUTCOMES FOR COAL MARKETS IN INDIA AND SOUTHEAST ASIA
In our International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021) Issues in Focus: Uncertainty in Coal Trade in India and Greater Southeast Asia, we analyze three ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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