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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 03 February 22
COAL SHORTAGE NOW AT ALARMING LEVELS, SAY ALUMINIUM PRODUCERS - IANS
With no relief in sight despite coal stocks running critically low and production disruptions looming across the Indian aluminium sector, the Alumi ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
HIGH COKING COAL PRICES PROVIDE GLIMPSE INTO STEELMAKING'S FUTURE - MCKINSEY
Last year was a volatile one in global commodity markets. Demand for coking coal, an essential raw material in the production of steel, was extreme ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
INDONESIA'S RESTRICTIONS ON COMMODITIES RATTLE MARKETS, MORE MOVES LIKELY - REUTERS
In just the first month of this year, Indonesian policymakers have rattled global markets with restrictions on some of its biggest commodities expo ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
CHINA'S TOP COAL PRODUCER FORECASTS 28 PCT PROFIT GROWTH IN 2021 - XINHUA
China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, one of the country’s biggest coal producers, said its net profits are expected to jump by 28 percent in ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
COAL STORAGE IN CHINA’S POWER PLANTS NEAR RECORD HIGHS - XINHUA
Coal inflows into China’s power plants have picked up, bringing their coal storage to near record highs, the National Development and Reform ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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