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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
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Monday, 31 January 22
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What does it mean for power generation and energy security?
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Sunday, 30 January 22
AIR PRODUCTS' COAL GASIFICATION PROPOSAL TRIGGERS LOOMING POLICY DISPUTES IN INDONESIA - IEEFA
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Reportedly, an expert committee appointed by th ...
Thursday, 27 January 22
2022 - A YEAR OF REBALANCING FOR METALS AND MINING - WOOD MACKENZIE
If 2021 was the year of rebound for metals and mining (M&M) commodities, then 2022 is shaping as the year of rebalance, says Wood Mackenzie, a ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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