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Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade would hit a record $32 billion for 2022 despite the war in Ukraine and the continuation of pandemic-related lockdowns in China. However, as geopolitical tensions, high energy prices and sustained inflation persist, the slowdown that began in the middle of 2022 is likely to constrain global trade in 2023. Enter China, who for the past few weeks has been – not so gradually – scrapping the restrictions, quarantines and other measures of their very strict Covid policy and China’s top leaders have signaled shifting their focus back to growth.
In 2023, tankers are likely to perform well, while we should expect Russian oil products exports to surge before the 5th of February starting date of sanctions on petroleum products it will be interesting to see the new ton-miles, for example how the volumes moved from the Primorsk to ARA trade will be replaced. On the back of a great market, the tanker fleet grew by about 150 vessels or 2.5%, almost half of them were Aframax/LR2 size, about fifty were MR tankers and about thirty five Suezmaxes and VLCCs each; in the LR1/Panamax sector the fleet has again contracted by two vessels. It’s notable that the orderbook for tankers is smaller today than it was at the beginning of 2022. In fact with the exception of 2021 when there was a marginal increase of just about twenty vessels, the orderbook has been shrinking for the last four years, bringing the orderbook to fleet ratio to about 4.2%, while the overaged fleet of vessels over 20years old represents about 9% (>20,000dwt) of the fleet.
On the dry bulk prospects are tighter, on the one hand, there is persisting inflation, high interest rates and a recession looming over our heads, but on the other hand, China is coming back on growth track, the UN is – with the Black Sea Grain Initiative – trying to resist unnecessary export restrictions in order to stabilize spiraling food prices and save some of the damage done from the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine. On the other-other hand. the dry bulk ship supply side, the world fleet has increased by about 350 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2.8%, while over the previous years it was about 3.1% (2021), 3.0% (2020) and 3.1% the year before that (2019). We hope that this relatively small fleet expansion will provide a resistance level for the freight rates in 2023. The current dry bulk orderbook although it has expanded a bit as there have been some order replenishment, remains at about 7% of the world fleet. Also notable, we now have more than five hundred vessels over 25years old in the fleet, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent close to 12% of the world dry bulk fleet; it was 10% last year and 9.5% the year before, an aging fleet mainly on the smaller sizes.
In China, because of the recent relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, the surge in covid-cases is resulting in a slowdown in activity across the country but it is also resulting in port congestions due to the impaired workforce (agents, pilots, stevedores, authorities and other services) hit by the illness, we, however, expect that to normalize in the coming months.
So for the New Year which is just around the corner, we will have new tanker ton-miles, inflation, high-interest rates, recession, the war in Ukraine, oil sanctions, EEXI Compliance, slow steaming, China back to consumption and growth; bring it on 2023…
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 20 January 22
CHINESE COAL JUMPS OVER 6% ON PRE-HOLIDAY SUPPLY WORRY - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures soared more than 6% on Wednesday, hitting a level last seen in late November as investors grew concerned over ti ...
Thursday, 20 January 22
VIETNAM: COAL SECTOR SEES POSITIVE PROSPECT IN 2022 - VNA
With many signs of rising demand for coal in various economic sectors in 2022, the Vietnam National Coal – Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomi ...
Wednesday, 19 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Since the beginning of the year, we have been witnessing the BDI correcting downwards with sizable drops across all segments. Latest similar levels ...
Sunday, 09 January 22
INDONESIA MINISTER SAYS 'EMERGENCY OVER' ON COAL SUPPLY CRUNCH - REUTERS
Indonesia’s power emergency which has triggered a coal export ban is over but the government will still continue to discuss policies in this ...
Wednesday, 05 January 22
CHINA COAL FUTURES SURGE ON SUPPLY WORRIES AMID INDONESIA EXPORT BAN - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures surged by as much as 7.8per cent to kick off 2022 on concerns of supply disruptions after Indonesia, its biggest ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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