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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equ ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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