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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 03 November 22
HANDYSIZE VALUES MOVING UP IN OCTOBER, WHILE LNG VALUES SKYROCKET - VESSELSVALUE
Handysize values have increased this month across most ages, following a period of decline. Values for generic 10 year old Handysizes have moved up ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
EUROPEAN GAS SUPPLY SURPLUS, NOVEMBER HBA DOWN TO US$ 308.2 PER TON - ESDM
European gas supply conditions have a major influence in determining fluctuations in the Reference Coal Price (HBA). The November 2022 HBA recorded ...
Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially th ...
Tuesday, 01 November 22
CHINA COAL TRADE DISRUPTED BY COVID OUTBREAKS AS WINTER LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s strict COVID-19 policy is constraining coal supplies and pushing up prices, industry officials and traders say, just weeks before the ...
Monday, 31 October 22
U.S. COAL-FIRED GENERATION DECLINING AFTER BRIEF RISE LAST YEAR - EIA
We expect 6% less U.S. coal-fired generation in 2022 than in 2021, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Although coal-fired ge ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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