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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 03 November 22
HANDYSIZE VALUES MOVING UP IN OCTOBER, WHILE LNG VALUES SKYROCKET - VESSELSVALUE
Handysize values have increased this month across most ages, following a period of decline. Values for generic 10 year old Handysizes have moved up ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
EUROPEAN GAS SUPPLY SURPLUS, NOVEMBER HBA DOWN TO US$ 308.2 PER TON - ESDM
European gas supply conditions have a major influence in determining fluctuations in the Reference Coal Price (HBA). The November 2022 HBA recorded ...
Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially th ...
Tuesday, 01 November 22
CHINA COAL TRADE DISRUPTED BY COVID OUTBREAKS AS WINTER LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s strict COVID-19 policy is constraining coal supplies and pushing up prices, industry officials and traders say, just weeks before the ...
Monday, 31 October 22
U.S. COAL-FIRED GENERATION DECLINING AFTER BRIEF RISE LAST YEAR - EIA
We expect 6% less U.S. coal-fired generation in 2022 than in 2021, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Although coal-fired ge ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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