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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 25 November 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES CORRECT FROM RECORD HIGH - FITCH RATINGS
Prices of Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg coal have corrected following falling European gas and coal prices, and more supply from Australia could help miti ...
Thursday, 24 November 22
VIETNAM BOOSTS COAL USE PLAN FOR 2030 AS G7 CLIMATE OFFER STALLS - REUTERS
Vietnam has increased its coal power target for 2030 under a revised draft energy plan, government documents seen by Reuters show, while renewables ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
THE GENCON 2022 CHARTERPARTY - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
BIMCO has published a revamped version of the popular GENCON charterparty. Our author, Helena Biggs, was a member of the ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
INDIA POWER BINGES ON COAL, OUTPACES ASIA - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired power output has increased much faster than any other country in the Asia Pacific since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ...
Friday, 18 November 22
REALITIES OF LOI LIABILITIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The cargo misdelivery claim in Trafigura Maritime Logistics Pte Ltd v. Clearlake Shipping Pte Ltd (Miracle Hope) [2022] E ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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