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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 25 November 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES CORRECT FROM RECORD HIGH - FITCH RATINGS
Prices of Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg coal have corrected following falling European gas and coal prices, and more supply from Australia could help miti ...
Thursday, 24 November 22
VIETNAM BOOSTS COAL USE PLAN FOR 2030 AS G7 CLIMATE OFFER STALLS - REUTERS
Vietnam has increased its coal power target for 2030 under a revised draft energy plan, government documents seen by Reuters show, while renewables ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
THE GENCON 2022 CHARTERPARTY - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
BIMCO has published a revamped version of the popular GENCON charterparty. Our author, Helena Biggs, was a member of the ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
INDIA POWER BINGES ON COAL, OUTPACES ASIA - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired power output has increased much faster than any other country in the Asia Pacific since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ...
Friday, 18 November 22
REALITIES OF LOI LIABILITIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The cargo misdelivery claim in Trafigura Maritime Logistics Pte Ltd v. Clearlake Shipping Pte Ltd (Miracle Hope) [2022] E ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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