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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 30 November 22
INDONESIA’S BUMI RESOURCES TARGETS 2023 COAL OUTPUT OF 80 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
Indonesian coal miner PT Bumi Resources Tbk BUMI.JKis eyeing a 10% increase in output to 80 million tonnes next year amid expectations for more fav ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
TANKERS: LONGER HAULS TO SUPPORT CONTINUED STRENGTH - BIMCO
Highlights
A rebound in the dirty tanker trade has led the Baltic Exchange Dirty Index (BDTI) to increase by 64% since our last report from mid ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping, although a conservative and innovation adverse industry, is currently in a transition period of digital transformation. According to a su ...
Tuesday, 29 November 22
INDIA TO RECEIVE FIRST LNG CARGO FROM INDONESIA’S TANGGUH LNG - REUTERS
India will receive its first cargo from Indonesia’s Tangguh liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant at the Dahej terminal on Monday, according to a ...
Tuesday, 29 November 22
SEABORNE COAL FLOWS IN 2022 - SIGNAL
This year is crucial for the energy mix in European countries, as the EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia. It is important to emphasize that the ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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