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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 30 November 22
INDONESIA’S BUMI RESOURCES TARGETS 2023 COAL OUTPUT OF 80 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
Indonesian coal miner PT Bumi Resources Tbk BUMI.JKis eyeing a 10% increase in output to 80 million tonnes next year amid expectations for more fav ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
TANKERS: LONGER HAULS TO SUPPORT CONTINUED STRENGTH - BIMCO
Highlights
A rebound in the dirty tanker trade has led the Baltic Exchange Dirty Index (BDTI) to increase by 64% since our last report from mid ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping, although a conservative and innovation adverse industry, is currently in a transition period of digital transformation. According to a su ...
Tuesday, 29 November 22
INDIA TO RECEIVE FIRST LNG CARGO FROM INDONESIA’S TANGGUH LNG - REUTERS
India will receive its first cargo from Indonesia’s Tangguh liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant at the Dahej terminal on Monday, according to a ...
Tuesday, 29 November 22
SEABORNE COAL FLOWS IN 2022 - SIGNAL
This year is crucial for the energy mix in European countries, as the EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia. It is important to emphasize that the ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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