We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 13 December 22
AUSTRALIA TO CAP PRICES OF COAL, GAS TO DRIVE DOWN ENERGY BILLS - REUTERS
Australia will cap coal and gas prices for a year in a bid to shave utility bills for households and businesses hit by soaring costs because of the ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA TO PREPAY $459 MLN DEBT AS RECORD COAL PRICES BOOST CASHFLOWS - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd. said on Friday it intended to prepay $459 million of its debt on or around Dec. 16, as elevated coal prices were ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
WHY COAL LEADS THE RISE IN COMMODITIES THIS YEAR - MARKETWATCH
This year marked a resurgence for coal, often known — and loathed — by environmentalists as the dirtiest energy source, with prices mor ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
BIMCO TO REVISE WAR RISK CLAUSES
Work to revise the BIMCO War Cancellation Clause 2004, the BIMCO War Risks Clause for Time Chartering 2013 (CONWARTIME 2013) and the BIMCO War Risk ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
COAL ROYALTY PAYMENTS BOOST AUSTRALIAN STATE'S BUDGET FORECAST - REUTERS
Australia’s Queensland state on Wednesday forecast a record surplus for the current financial year, largely driven by higher royalty payments ...
|
|
|
Showing 171 to 175 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
|
| |
| |
|
