We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 13 December 22
AUSTRALIA TO CAP PRICES OF COAL, GAS TO DRIVE DOWN ENERGY BILLS - REUTERS
Australia will cap coal and gas prices for a year in a bid to shave utility bills for households and businesses hit by soaring costs because of the ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA TO PREPAY $459 MLN DEBT AS RECORD COAL PRICES BOOST CASHFLOWS - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd. said on Friday it intended to prepay $459 million of its debt on or around Dec. 16, as elevated coal prices were ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
WHY COAL LEADS THE RISE IN COMMODITIES THIS YEAR - MARKETWATCH
This year marked a resurgence for coal, often known — and loathed — by environmentalists as the dirtiest energy source, with prices mor ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
BIMCO TO REVISE WAR RISK CLAUSES
Work to revise the BIMCO War Cancellation Clause 2004, the BIMCO War Risks Clause for Time Chartering 2013 (CONWARTIME 2013) and the BIMCO War Risk ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
COAL ROYALTY PAYMENTS BOOST AUSTRALIAN STATE'S BUDGET FORECAST - REUTERS
Australia’s Queensland state on Wednesday forecast a record surplus for the current financial year, largely driven by higher royalty payments ...
|
|
|
Showing 171 to 175 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
|
| |
| |
|
