We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 22 December 22
RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS CRATER BY 54% IN THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE EU'S EMBARGO AMID A SHORTAGE OF TANKERS WILLING TO CARRY CARGOES - BUSINESS INSIDER
Since the European Union imposed its seaborne crude sanctions, Russian oil exports have tumbled by more than half, according to data compiled by Bl ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
CHINA TIGHTENS VERIFICATION OF SHIPS’ ENERGY CONSUMPTION DATA - GARD
From 22 December 2022, ships trading to Chinese ports must record their energy consumption data in accordance with the requirements of their Ship E ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
AN OVERVIEW OF THE LNG MARKET - VESSELSVALUE
LNG values have continued to strengthen, spurred by skyrocketing earnings that have surpassed last year’s record breaking peaks. In November, ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COKING COAL SLUMPS AS TALKS ON AUSTRALIA-CHINA TRADE RIFT LOOM - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures dropped more than 3 per cent on Tuesday (Dec 20), extending losses, as supply of the steelmaking input might increase i ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COAL AND GAS PRICE CAPS MAY COMPOUND POLITICAL RISK FOR AUSTRALIAN CORPORATES - FITCH RATINGS
Australia’s introduction of temporary price caps on domestic sales of gas and coal used for electricity generation will probably have limited ...
|
|
|
Showing 161 to 165 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
