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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 22 December 22
RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS CRATER BY 54% IN THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE EU'S EMBARGO AMID A SHORTAGE OF TANKERS WILLING TO CARRY CARGOES - BUSINESS INSIDER
Since the European Union imposed its seaborne crude sanctions, Russian oil exports have tumbled by more than half, according to data compiled by Bl ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
CHINA TIGHTENS VERIFICATION OF SHIPS’ ENERGY CONSUMPTION DATA - GARD
From 22 December 2022, ships trading to Chinese ports must record their energy consumption data in accordance with the requirements of their Ship E ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
AN OVERVIEW OF THE LNG MARKET - VESSELSVALUE
LNG values have continued to strengthen, spurred by skyrocketing earnings that have surpassed last year’s record breaking peaks. In November, ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COKING COAL SLUMPS AS TALKS ON AUSTRALIA-CHINA TRADE RIFT LOOM - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures dropped more than 3 per cent on Tuesday (Dec 20), extending losses, as supply of the steelmaking input might increase i ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COAL AND GAS PRICE CAPS MAY COMPOUND POLITICAL RISK FOR AUSTRALIAN CORPORATES - FITCH RATINGS
Australia’s introduction of temporary price caps on domestic sales of gas and coal used for electricity generation will probably have limited ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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