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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 08 January 23
ELEVATED COAL PRICE A DRAG ON MARGINS OF DOMESTIC BASE METAL PLAYERS: ICRA
The increased price of coal continue to be a drag on the margin of domestic base metal players with no immediate relief in sight, rating agency ICR ...
Monday, 02 January 23
CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK BY 2035: REPORT - REUTERS
China’s primary energy consumption is likely to peak at nearly 6.03 billion tonnes of standard coal between 2030 and 2035, refining giant Chi ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND LIKELY TO PEAK BETWEEN 2030-2035: MINISTER - ANI
The demand for coal in India will continue and is likely to peak between 2030-2035, Union Minister of Coal, Mines, and Parliamentary Affairs Pralha ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
RIO TINTO AND PARTNERS COULD RECEIVE AS MUCH AS $450M IN GOVERNMENT COMPENSATION FOR COAL PRICE CAP - THE GUARDIAN
Compensation payments for the Gladstone power plant remain the sticking point in the federal government’s coal price cap compensation negotia ...
Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade wou ...
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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