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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 19 December 22
ENERGY CRISIS FUELS COAL COMEBACK IN GERMANY - REUTERS
Coal has made a comeback in Germany this year, as Europe’s largest economy turns to the dirty fuel to power it through an energy crisis.
...
Thursday, 15 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While observing the ship repair market very close to the end of the year, we are confident that shipyards worldwide are entering a new era. The nex ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
STRONG COAL PRICES SUPPORT ROBUST EARNINGS AT INDONESIAN COAL MINERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects cash flow generation at Indonesian coal miners to remain strong in 2023, based on its forecast for coal prices to remain high ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
BIMCO CII CLAUSE FINALLY RELEASED: DOES IT MAKE ANY SENSE OF CCI? - WFW
WHAT IS CII?
The new International Maritime Organisation’s (“IMO’s”) Carbon Intensity Indicator (“CII”) cer ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
COAL BASE RAMPS UP ENERGY SUPPLY FOR WINTER NEEDS - XINHUA
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China’s leading coal production base, has kicked its production into high gear to meet heating needs as col ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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