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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 19 December 22
ENERGY CRISIS FUELS COAL COMEBACK IN GERMANY - REUTERS
Coal has made a comeback in Germany this year, as Europe’s largest economy turns to the dirty fuel to power it through an energy crisis.
...
Thursday, 15 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While observing the ship repair market very close to the end of the year, we are confident that shipyards worldwide are entering a new era. The nex ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
STRONG COAL PRICES SUPPORT ROBUST EARNINGS AT INDONESIAN COAL MINERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects cash flow generation at Indonesian coal miners to remain strong in 2023, based on its forecast for coal prices to remain high ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
BIMCO CII CLAUSE FINALLY RELEASED: DOES IT MAKE ANY SENSE OF CCI? - WFW
WHAT IS CII?
The new International Maritime Organisation’s (“IMO’s”) Carbon Intensity Indicator (“CII”) cer ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
COAL BASE RAMPS UP ENERGY SUPPLY FOR WINTER NEEDS - XINHUA
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China’s leading coal production base, has kicked its production into high gear to meet heating needs as col ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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