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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 December 22
INDIA'S STEEL MINISTRY SEEKS IMPORT TAX WAIVER FOR COKING COAL - SOURCES REUTERS REPORTED
India’s steel ministry has asked the finance ministry for a waiver of import tax on coking coal among a slew of raw materials, as it scramble ...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 17% IN APR-NOV PERIOD - PTI
The country’s coal production increased 17 per cent to 524.20 million tonnes in the April-November period of the ongoing fiscal.
...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDONESIA AIMS TO STARTS COLLECTING COAL LEVY IN Q1 2023 - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia aims to establish a coal fund agency and start collecting a coal levy in the first quarter next year, to help ensure supply security for ...
Saturday, 03 December 22
COMPLEX RUSSIAN PRICE CAP MAKES MARITIME VISIBILITY A MUST - WINDWARD
Many commentators and analysts are speculating about the potential impact the Russian seaborne oil price cap will have on organizations and entitie ...
Friday, 02 December 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TOWARD US$ 281.48 A TON AS DEMAND DROPS WORLDWIDE
COALspot.com: The cost of coal is falling so fast that it is beginning to put real money back in the pockets of end-users.
Indonesia ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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