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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 26 January 23
AUSTRALIA'S CORONADO GLOBAL SEES COAL PRICES RISING ON RESUMING CHINA IMPORTS - REUTERS
Australia’s Coronado Global Resources said on Tuesday resuming metallurgical coal imports to China would likely push sea-borne coal prices hi ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S MAJOR COAL-PRODUCING PROVINCE ACCELERATES DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION - XINHUA
At Chindata Group’s big-data industrial park in Lingqiu County of Datong City, hundreds of thousands of servers are running round-the-clock t ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE SEES COAL PRODUCTION INCREASE IN 2022 - XINHUA
North China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi saw its coal production hit 1.31 billion tonnes in 2022, up 8.7 percent year on year, local author ...
Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
FRAUD IS THE BIGGEST THREAT TO CARGO LOSSES - TT CLUB
The almost exclusive use of online facilities to process business transactions allows a myriad of fraudulent pursuits to find opportunities within ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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