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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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