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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 31 October 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 12.3 PCT IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in September, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of ...
Wednesday, 26 October 22
BIMCO PUBLISHES UPDATED GENCON CONTRACT
BIMCO has published a revised and updated version GENCON 2022 – one of its flagship contracts within its portfolio of standard contracts for ...
Monday, 24 October 22
KOSPO TO INVITE 400,000 MT OF COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an international tender for 400,000 MT of 3,800 - 4,400kcal/kg NCV and Sulfur Max 0 ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
ASIA COULD BE A BRIGHT SPOT AMID GLOBAL DOWNTURN NEXT YEAR, ECONOMISTS SAY - CNBC
Asia — especially Southeast Asia — remains a bright spot, even as the global economy looks set to head into recession next year, econom ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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