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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 31 October 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 12.3 PCT IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in September, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of ...
Wednesday, 26 October 22
BIMCO PUBLISHES UPDATED GENCON CONTRACT
BIMCO has published a revised and updated version GENCON 2022 – one of its flagship contracts within its portfolio of standard contracts for ...
Monday, 24 October 22
KOSPO TO INVITE 400,000 MT OF COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an international tender for 400,000 MT of 3,800 - 4,400kcal/kg NCV and Sulfur Max 0 ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
ASIA COULD BE A BRIGHT SPOT AMID GLOBAL DOWNTURN NEXT YEAR, ECONOMISTS SAY - CNBC
Asia — especially Southeast Asia — remains a bright spot, even as the global economy looks set to head into recession next year, econom ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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