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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2022 has been remarkable.
Focusing only on Tankers and Bulkers, such v ...
Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation ...
Monday, 10 October 22
GLOBAL CEOS EXPECT IMPENDING RECESSION TO BE 'SHORT AND SHARP,' POLL SHOWS - CNBC
Global CEOs are anticipating a recession in the next 12 months, according to a new survey by professional services firm KPMG, which said more than ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
AUSTRALIA’S RESOURCES REVENUE TO HIT RECORD AMID UKRAINE CONFLICT - REUTERS
Australian resources and energy export earnings are forecast to jump 7% to a record A$450 billion ($290 billion) this fiscal year, bolstered by soa ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
COAL INDIA ASKED TO ENHANCE SUPPLY TO THERMAL POWER PLANTS - IANS
With the festival season round the corner, Coal India Ltd. has been directed by the government to scale up dispatch to thermal power plants.
&n ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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