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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2022 has been remarkable.
Focusing only on Tankers and Bulkers, such v ...
Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation ...
Monday, 10 October 22
GLOBAL CEOS EXPECT IMPENDING RECESSION TO BE 'SHORT AND SHARP,' POLL SHOWS - CNBC
Global CEOs are anticipating a recession in the next 12 months, according to a new survey by professional services firm KPMG, which said more than ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
AUSTRALIA’S RESOURCES REVENUE TO HIT RECORD AMID UKRAINE CONFLICT - REUTERS
Australian resources and energy export earnings are forecast to jump 7% to a record A$450 billion ($290 billion) this fiscal year, bolstered by soa ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
COAL INDIA ASKED TO ENHANCE SUPPLY TO THERMAL POWER PLANTS - IANS
With the festival season round the corner, Coal India Ltd. has been directed by the government to scale up dispatch to thermal power plants.
&n ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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