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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 05 October 22
BUNKER PRICES DOWN AGAIN; IS THERE MORE TO COME? - INTEGR8 FUELS
It’s the economy…..”
VLSFO prices are now back to levels at the start of this year. After all the extremes of thi ...
Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russ ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in thei ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
OIL PRICES COULD SOON RETURN TO $100 AS OPEC+ CONSIDERS ‘HISTORIC’ CUT, ANALYSTS SAY - CNBC
An influential alliance of some of the world’s most powerful oil producers is reportedly considering their largest output cut since the start ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGE AGAIN TO RECORD HIGH
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference reached another record high in October as Russia's war in Ukraine continues to spark a surge in c ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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