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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 05 October 22
BUNKER PRICES DOWN AGAIN; IS THERE MORE TO COME? - INTEGR8 FUELS
It’s the economy…..”
VLSFO prices are now back to levels at the start of this year. After all the extremes of thi ...
Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russ ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in thei ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
OIL PRICES COULD SOON RETURN TO $100 AS OPEC+ CONSIDERS ‘HISTORIC’ CUT, ANALYSTS SAY - CNBC
An influential alliance of some of the world’s most powerful oil producers is reportedly considering their largest output cut since the start ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGE AGAIN TO RECORD HIGH
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference reached another record high in October as Russia's war in Ukraine continues to spark a surge in c ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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