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Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially thought to be an oil or gas crisis, turns out to be an unfolding diesel crisis, with scarce availability of the fuel and historically low inventories adding headwinds to an already tight market.
In the US, diesel inventories are hitting historically low levels. Albeit fuel shortages, especially on the East Coast, combined US exports of crude oil and products surged to 11.4m b/d in the week ending October 21st, according to EIA. But while the US government is concerned over the unfolding diesel crisis, it is draining the SPR which has zero impact on diesel production. Officials are concerned that the 1m-barrel reserve will not suffice to counter a severe disruption this winter and are mulling ways to bolster supplies. In the meantime, oil companies are facing pressure from the government to export less fuel and build domestic inventories, while Biden’s administration has not yet ruled out a possible curb on exports. US refineries’ crack margins from turning crude oil into diesel are skyrocketing. Meanwhile, diesel demand nationwide is showing signs of hitting the brakes, surging to its highest seasonal level since 2007, over the last month before dipping this past week. The fuel shortage, which is crucial for heating and trucking, will likely be exacerbated as colder weather forces consumers to increase consumption to heat up their homes.
In the meantime, two consecutive malfunctions in Europe’s biggest refinery, the Shell Pernis plant near Rotterdam, as well as refinery strikes in France have caused supply disruptions at a time when the continent can ill afford it, given the upcoming EU ban on purchases of refined petroleum from Russia that’s due to start in early February.
On the other hand, a bullish combination of recently granted fuel export quotas from the Chinese government to domestic refineries and the end of refinery maintenance work in some major Asian refineries are set to provide some relief to the current market tightness by lifting global refinery processing rates. More specifically, 290k b/d of refining capacity in South Korea will return from maintenance in November, while India’s planned maintenance procedures will resume by December. Meanwhile, China’s refiners have been utilizing the government’s export quotas and have been opting for higher prices overseas. Diesel output surged by 22% m/m to a historical high of 17m tons this month. This comes as a response to reviving diesel demand and collapsing jet fuel consumption. Chinese fuel exports are further underpinned by weak domestic demand. October loadings of clean fuels from Asia to the Americas surged to 715k tons in the week ending Oct. 31st, hitting a 3-year high. Looking forward, we expect that diesel cargoes from Asia will continue to flow toward the US East Coast, underpinned by current favorable market fundamentals.
Overall, while we should expect some support from Asian refiners to the US market, the EU’s looming sanctions on Russian oil products will once again drive the market on the edge, as Europe, which is still reliant on Russian diesel, will ultimately run short on the fuel and could possibly draw some cargoes from Asia, limiting thus supply for the US.
By Chara Georgousi,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 16 September 22
DRY BULK MARKET: EU’S BAN ON RUSSIAN COAL LIFTS DEMAND DESPITE ECONOMIC HEADWINDS - BIMCO
Highlights
– The Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) peaked in late May and has since fallen sharply as lower Chinese demand and adverse glob ...
Friday, 16 September 22
BIMCO EMBARKS ON NEW STANDARD FOR “QUIET ENJOYMENT”
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A newly set-up BIMCO drafting team involving a cross-section of shipowners, charterers, financing and leasing i ...
Friday, 16 September 22
INDIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO RISE 150 PER CENT IN 10 YEARS: CENTRE - EXPRESS NEWS SERVICE
The Union Ministry of Mines is expecting 150 per cent growth in coal production 10 years down the line as a result of coal reforms that had been us ...
Thursday, 15 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed on a 100,000 b/d output cut last week, oil flows are in the spotlight ...
Monday, 12 September 22
COAL PRICE HIKE REMAINS DIFFICULT FOR CIL: CHAIRMAN TELLS ANALYSTS - PTI
Coal India on Thursday informed investors that increasing coal prices remains difficult in the current context when the economy is grappling with h ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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