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Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially thought to be an oil or gas crisis, turns out to be an unfolding diesel crisis, with scarce availability of the fuel and historically low inventories adding headwinds to an already tight market.
In the US, diesel inventories are hitting historically low levels. Albeit fuel shortages, especially on the East Coast, combined US exports of crude oil and products surged to 11.4m b/d in the week ending October 21st, according to EIA. But while the US government is concerned over the unfolding diesel crisis, it is draining the SPR which has zero impact on diesel production. Officials are concerned that the 1m-barrel reserve will not suffice to counter a severe disruption this winter and are mulling ways to bolster supplies. In the meantime, oil companies are facing pressure from the government to export less fuel and build domestic inventories, while Biden’s administration has not yet ruled out a possible curb on exports. US refineries’ crack margins from turning crude oil into diesel are skyrocketing. Meanwhile, diesel demand nationwide is showing signs of hitting the brakes, surging to its highest seasonal level since 2007, over the last month before dipping this past week. The fuel shortage, which is crucial for heating and trucking, will likely be exacerbated as colder weather forces consumers to increase consumption to heat up their homes.
In the meantime, two consecutive malfunctions in Europe’s biggest refinery, the Shell Pernis plant near Rotterdam, as well as refinery strikes in France have caused supply disruptions at a time when the continent can ill afford it, given the upcoming EU ban on purchases of refined petroleum from Russia that’s due to start in early February.
On the other hand, a bullish combination of recently granted fuel export quotas from the Chinese government to domestic refineries and the end of refinery maintenance work in some major Asian refineries are set to provide some relief to the current market tightness by lifting global refinery processing rates. More specifically, 290k b/d of refining capacity in South Korea will return from maintenance in November, while India’s planned maintenance procedures will resume by December. Meanwhile, China’s refiners have been utilizing the government’s export quotas and have been opting for higher prices overseas. Diesel output surged by 22% m/m to a historical high of 17m tons this month. This comes as a response to reviving diesel demand and collapsing jet fuel consumption. Chinese fuel exports are further underpinned by weak domestic demand. October loadings of clean fuels from Asia to the Americas surged to 715k tons in the week ending Oct. 31st, hitting a 3-year high. Looking forward, we expect that diesel cargoes from Asia will continue to flow toward the US East Coast, underpinned by current favorable market fundamentals.
Overall, while we should expect some support from Asian refiners to the US market, the EU’s looming sanctions on Russian oil products will once again drive the market on the edge, as Europe, which is still reliant on Russian diesel, will ultimately run short on the fuel and could possibly draw some cargoes from Asia, limiting thus supply for the US.
By Chara Georgousi,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 September 22
ABM INVESTAMA BUYS 30% GEMS SHARES FOR US$ 420 MILLION
PT ABM Investama Tbk through its indirect subsidiary, bought a 30% stake in the PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk for US$ 420 million or around Rp 6.2 tri ...
Wednesday, 31 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Scorching temperatures and extremely dry conditions during the Northern hemisphere summer have been drying crops. Yield prospects have subsided in ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal comp ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
A COMBINED US$6.8-BILLION CASH BALANCE OF INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES COULD PROVIDE FOR TIMELY INVESTMENTS IN GREEN TRANSITION - IEEFA
A combined US$6.8-billion cash balance of Indonesian coal companies could provide for timely investments in green transition
The opp ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
SHIPPING INDUSTRY TO REMOVE THE INDIAN OCEAN HIGH RISK AREA - BIMCO
After more than a decade of effective threat-reducing counter-piracy operations the shipping industry has removed the ‘Indian Ocean High Risk ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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