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Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially thought to be an oil or gas crisis, turns out to be an unfolding diesel crisis, with scarce availability of the fuel and historically low inventories adding headwinds to an already tight market.
In the US, diesel inventories are hitting historically low levels. Albeit fuel shortages, especially on the East Coast, combined US exports of crude oil and products surged to 11.4m b/d in the week ending October 21st, according to EIA. But while the US government is concerned over the unfolding diesel crisis, it is draining the SPR which has zero impact on diesel production. Officials are concerned that the 1m-barrel reserve will not suffice to counter a severe disruption this winter and are mulling ways to bolster supplies. In the meantime, oil companies are facing pressure from the government to export less fuel and build domestic inventories, while Biden’s administration has not yet ruled out a possible curb on exports. US refineries’ crack margins from turning crude oil into diesel are skyrocketing. Meanwhile, diesel demand nationwide is showing signs of hitting the brakes, surging to its highest seasonal level since 2007, over the last month before dipping this past week. The fuel shortage, which is crucial for heating and trucking, will likely be exacerbated as colder weather forces consumers to increase consumption to heat up their homes.
In the meantime, two consecutive malfunctions in Europe’s biggest refinery, the Shell Pernis plant near Rotterdam, as well as refinery strikes in France have caused supply disruptions at a time when the continent can ill afford it, given the upcoming EU ban on purchases of refined petroleum from Russia that’s due to start in early February.
On the other hand, a bullish combination of recently granted fuel export quotas from the Chinese government to domestic refineries and the end of refinery maintenance work in some major Asian refineries are set to provide some relief to the current market tightness by lifting global refinery processing rates. More specifically, 290k b/d of refining capacity in South Korea will return from maintenance in November, while India’s planned maintenance procedures will resume by December. Meanwhile, China’s refiners have been utilizing the government’s export quotas and have been opting for higher prices overseas. Diesel output surged by 22% m/m to a historical high of 17m tons this month. This comes as a response to reviving diesel demand and collapsing jet fuel consumption. Chinese fuel exports are further underpinned by weak domestic demand. October loadings of clean fuels from Asia to the Americas surged to 715k tons in the week ending Oct. 31st, hitting a 3-year high. Looking forward, we expect that diesel cargoes from Asia will continue to flow toward the US East Coast, underpinned by current favorable market fundamentals.
Overall, while we should expect some support from Asian refiners to the US market, the EU’s looming sanctions on Russian oil products will once again drive the market on the edge, as Europe, which is still reliant on Russian diesel, will ultimately run short on the fuel and could possibly draw some cargoes from Asia, limiting thus supply for the US.
By Chara Georgousi,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 09 September 22
GREECE WILL KEEP COAL-FIRED PLANTS RUNNING FOR LONGER AMID GAS CRISIS - REUTERS
Greece will keep seven coal-fired plants running for longer than previously planned as European countries adjust to a cut in gas flows coming from ...
Friday, 09 September 22
CHINA'S DROUGHT INTENSIFIES GLOBAL COAL SHORTAGE - REUTERS
China’s drought has sent coal prices surging as traders anticipate the lack of hydroelectric generation will force it to burn more coal to me ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MOODY.S AFFIRMS ABM INVESTAMA'S B1 RATINGS FOLLOWING PLANNED MINORITY INVESTMENT IN COAL MINER; OUTLOOK STABLE
Moody's Investors Service has affirmed ABM Investama Tbk (P.T.)'s B1 corporate family rating (CFR), along with the B1 rating on its senior ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. Mor ...
Friday, 02 September 22
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIPS SLIGHTLY IN SEPTEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for September delivery drops 0.74 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price R ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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