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Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially thought to be an oil or gas crisis, turns out to be an unfolding diesel crisis, with scarce availability of the fuel and historically low inventories adding headwinds to an already tight market.
In the US, diesel inventories are hitting historically low levels. Albeit fuel shortages, especially on the East Coast, combined US exports of crude oil and products surged to 11.4m b/d in the week ending October 21st, according to EIA. But while the US government is concerned over the unfolding diesel crisis, it is draining the SPR which has zero impact on diesel production. Officials are concerned that the 1m-barrel reserve will not suffice to counter a severe disruption this winter and are mulling ways to bolster supplies. In the meantime, oil companies are facing pressure from the government to export less fuel and build domestic inventories, while Biden’s administration has not yet ruled out a possible curb on exports. US refineries’ crack margins from turning crude oil into diesel are skyrocketing. Meanwhile, diesel demand nationwide is showing signs of hitting the brakes, surging to its highest seasonal level since 2007, over the last month before dipping this past week. The fuel shortage, which is crucial for heating and trucking, will likely be exacerbated as colder weather forces consumers to increase consumption to heat up their homes.
In the meantime, two consecutive malfunctions in Europe’s biggest refinery, the Shell Pernis plant near Rotterdam, as well as refinery strikes in France have caused supply disruptions at a time when the continent can ill afford it, given the upcoming EU ban on purchases of refined petroleum from Russia that’s due to start in early February.
On the other hand, a bullish combination of recently granted fuel export quotas from the Chinese government to domestic refineries and the end of refinery maintenance work in some major Asian refineries are set to provide some relief to the current market tightness by lifting global refinery processing rates. More specifically, 290k b/d of refining capacity in South Korea will return from maintenance in November, while India’s planned maintenance procedures will resume by December. Meanwhile, China’s refiners have been utilizing the government’s export quotas and have been opting for higher prices overseas. Diesel output surged by 22% m/m to a historical high of 17m tons this month. This comes as a response to reviving diesel demand and collapsing jet fuel consumption. Chinese fuel exports are further underpinned by weak domestic demand. October loadings of clean fuels from Asia to the Americas surged to 715k tons in the week ending Oct. 31st, hitting a 3-year high. Looking forward, we expect that diesel cargoes from Asia will continue to flow toward the US East Coast, underpinned by current favorable market fundamentals.
Overall, while we should expect some support from Asian refiners to the US market, the EU’s looming sanctions on Russian oil products will once again drive the market on the edge, as Europe, which is still reliant on Russian diesel, will ultimately run short on the fuel and could possibly draw some cargoes from Asia, limiting thus supply for the US.
By Chara Georgousi,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 19 September 22
BUMA AUSTRALIA AWARDED A$400 MILLION CONTRACT EXTENSION BY BMA FOR GOONYELLA PROJECT
Press Release – PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. (the "Company") announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
CHINA WARNS COAL COMPANIES AGAINST DUAL CONTRACTS, KEEP PRICES STABLE - REUTERS
China’s state economic planner warned coal companies operating at ports in the Bohai Bay region to comply with their long-term contracts to k ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has i ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
...
Friday, 16 September 22
WHEN IS A VESSEL'S INCOME EARNING CAPACITY AT RISK? 'CONTROLLED INCOME CAN BE A KEY OF SUCCESS' - MARASCO MARINE
Managing marine risks is not an easy task, which requires special knowledge and expertise on the subject per se. Customarily, big ship management c ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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