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Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially thought to be an oil or gas crisis, turns out to be an unfolding diesel crisis, with scarce availability of the fuel and historically low inventories adding headwinds to an already tight market.
In the US, diesel inventories are hitting historically low levels. Albeit fuel shortages, especially on the East Coast, combined US exports of crude oil and products surged to 11.4m b/d in the week ending October 21st, according to EIA. But while the US government is concerned over the unfolding diesel crisis, it is draining the SPR which has zero impact on diesel production. Officials are concerned that the 1m-barrel reserve will not suffice to counter a severe disruption this winter and are mulling ways to bolster supplies. In the meantime, oil companies are facing pressure from the government to export less fuel and build domestic inventories, while Biden’s administration has not yet ruled out a possible curb on exports. US refineries’ crack margins from turning crude oil into diesel are skyrocketing. Meanwhile, diesel demand nationwide is showing signs of hitting the brakes, surging to its highest seasonal level since 2007, over the last month before dipping this past week. The fuel shortage, which is crucial for heating and trucking, will likely be exacerbated as colder weather forces consumers to increase consumption to heat up their homes.
In the meantime, two consecutive malfunctions in Europe’s biggest refinery, the Shell Pernis plant near Rotterdam, as well as refinery strikes in France have caused supply disruptions at a time when the continent can ill afford it, given the upcoming EU ban on purchases of refined petroleum from Russia that’s due to start in early February.
On the other hand, a bullish combination of recently granted fuel export quotas from the Chinese government to domestic refineries and the end of refinery maintenance work in some major Asian refineries are set to provide some relief to the current market tightness by lifting global refinery processing rates. More specifically, 290k b/d of refining capacity in South Korea will return from maintenance in November, while India’s planned maintenance procedures will resume by December. Meanwhile, China’s refiners have been utilizing the government’s export quotas and have been opting for higher prices overseas. Diesel output surged by 22% m/m to a historical high of 17m tons this month. This comes as a response to reviving diesel demand and collapsing jet fuel consumption. Chinese fuel exports are further underpinned by weak domestic demand. October loadings of clean fuels from Asia to the Americas surged to 715k tons in the week ending Oct. 31st, hitting a 3-year high. Looking forward, we expect that diesel cargoes from Asia will continue to flow toward the US East Coast, underpinned by current favorable market fundamentals.
Overall, while we should expect some support from Asian refiners to the US market, the EU’s looming sanctions on Russian oil products will once again drive the market on the edge, as Europe, which is still reliant on Russian diesel, will ultimately run short on the fuel and could possibly draw some cargoes from Asia, limiting thus supply for the US.
By Chara Georgousi,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 September 22
EUROPEAN STEEL BUYERS SEEK DIRECTION IN VOLATILE MARKET - MEPS INTERNATIONAL
Demand for steel is slow to recover, after the summer break. Mill production costs continue to increase. Steel purchasers are uncertain about the f ...
Friday, 23 September 22
BUOYANT COAL INDUSTRY SEEKS WAYS TO STAY IN THE LONG-TERM ENERGY MIX - REUTERS
There’s no doubt that the global coal industry has been a major beneficiary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent energy c ...
Friday, 23 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In view of the forthcoming winter, Europe is trying to escape from its energy (oil & gas) dependency from Russia to ensure energy abundance eve ...
Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA'S DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS 3-MONTH LOW IN AUGUST ON RAINS, COVID CURBS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in August slipped to a three-month low as some mines in its biggest coal mining regions reduced operations or even ...
Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 8.1 PCT IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in August, official data showed.
The country produced 370 million tonnes of ra ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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