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Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially thought to be an oil or gas crisis, turns out to be an unfolding diesel crisis, with scarce availability of the fuel and historically low inventories adding headwinds to an already tight market.
In the US, diesel inventories are hitting historically low levels. Albeit fuel shortages, especially on the East Coast, combined US exports of crude oil and products surged to 11.4m b/d in the week ending October 21st, according to EIA. But while the US government is concerned over the unfolding diesel crisis, it is draining the SPR which has zero impact on diesel production. Officials are concerned that the 1m-barrel reserve will not suffice to counter a severe disruption this winter and are mulling ways to bolster supplies. In the meantime, oil companies are facing pressure from the government to export less fuel and build domestic inventories, while Biden’s administration has not yet ruled out a possible curb on exports. US refineries’ crack margins from turning crude oil into diesel are skyrocketing. Meanwhile, diesel demand nationwide is showing signs of hitting the brakes, surging to its highest seasonal level since 2007, over the last month before dipping this past week. The fuel shortage, which is crucial for heating and trucking, will likely be exacerbated as colder weather forces consumers to increase consumption to heat up their homes.
In the meantime, two consecutive malfunctions in Europe’s biggest refinery, the Shell Pernis plant near Rotterdam, as well as refinery strikes in France have caused supply disruptions at a time when the continent can ill afford it, given the upcoming EU ban on purchases of refined petroleum from Russia that’s due to start in early February.
On the other hand, a bullish combination of recently granted fuel export quotas from the Chinese government to domestic refineries and the end of refinery maintenance work in some major Asian refineries are set to provide some relief to the current market tightness by lifting global refinery processing rates. More specifically, 290k b/d of refining capacity in South Korea will return from maintenance in November, while India’s planned maintenance procedures will resume by December. Meanwhile, China’s refiners have been utilizing the government’s export quotas and have been opting for higher prices overseas. Diesel output surged by 22% m/m to a historical high of 17m tons this month. This comes as a response to reviving diesel demand and collapsing jet fuel consumption. Chinese fuel exports are further underpinned by weak domestic demand. October loadings of clean fuels from Asia to the Americas surged to 715k tons in the week ending Oct. 31st, hitting a 3-year high. Looking forward, we expect that diesel cargoes from Asia will continue to flow toward the US East Coast, underpinned by current favorable market fundamentals.
Overall, while we should expect some support from Asian refiners to the US market, the EU’s looming sanctions on Russian oil products will once again drive the market on the edge, as Europe, which is still reliant on Russian diesel, will ultimately run short on the fuel and could possibly draw some cargoes from Asia, limiting thus supply for the US.
By Chara Georgousi,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 02 October 22
MISC STRENGTHENS ITS PARTNERSHIP WITH SEARIVER MARITIME
MISC Berhad (MISC) today announced that its subsidiaries Polaris LNG Three Pte. Ltd. and Polaris LNG Four Pte. Ltd. have secured long-term time cha ...
Thursday, 29 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
This week, focus turns to the 38th APPEC Conference, where leading professionals from the global oil industry will discuss the future key drivers o ...
Thursday, 29 September 22
HIGH COAL PRICES REMAIN A CONCERN FOR DOMESTIC NON-FERROUS METAL COMPANIES - ICRA
According to ICRA on Monday, the high price of coal will have a negative effect on the profitability of domestic non-ferrous metal companies that m ...
Tuesday, 27 September 22
14% INCREASE IN EUROPEAN COAL DEMAND TO BE SHORT-TERM TREND - WOOD MACKENZIE
European seaborne thermal coal demand is projected to increase 14% or 12 million metric tonnes (Mt) this year to 98 Mt as it grapples with the curr ...
Friday, 23 September 22
CHINA DIGS DEEP TO RAISE COAL OUTPUT TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal production has surged this year as the government seeks to improve energy security by reducing dependence on imports and amassin ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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