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Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially thought to be an oil or gas crisis, turns out to be an unfolding diesel crisis, with scarce availability of the fuel and historically low inventories adding headwinds to an already tight market.
In the US, diesel inventories are hitting historically low levels. Albeit fuel shortages, especially on the East Coast, combined US exports of crude oil and products surged to 11.4m b/d in the week ending October 21st, according to EIA. But while the US government is concerned over the unfolding diesel crisis, it is draining the SPR which has zero impact on diesel production. Officials are concerned that the 1m-barrel reserve will not suffice to counter a severe disruption this winter and are mulling ways to bolster supplies. In the meantime, oil companies are facing pressure from the government to export less fuel and build domestic inventories, while Biden’s administration has not yet ruled out a possible curb on exports. US refineries’ crack margins from turning crude oil into diesel are skyrocketing. Meanwhile, diesel demand nationwide is showing signs of hitting the brakes, surging to its highest seasonal level since 2007, over the last month before dipping this past week. The fuel shortage, which is crucial for heating and trucking, will likely be exacerbated as colder weather forces consumers to increase consumption to heat up their homes.
In the meantime, two consecutive malfunctions in Europe’s biggest refinery, the Shell Pernis plant near Rotterdam, as well as refinery strikes in France have caused supply disruptions at a time when the continent can ill afford it, given the upcoming EU ban on purchases of refined petroleum from Russia that’s due to start in early February.
On the other hand, a bullish combination of recently granted fuel export quotas from the Chinese government to domestic refineries and the end of refinery maintenance work in some major Asian refineries are set to provide some relief to the current market tightness by lifting global refinery processing rates. More specifically, 290k b/d of refining capacity in South Korea will return from maintenance in November, while India’s planned maintenance procedures will resume by December. Meanwhile, China’s refiners have been utilizing the government’s export quotas and have been opting for higher prices overseas. Diesel output surged by 22% m/m to a historical high of 17m tons this month. This comes as a response to reviving diesel demand and collapsing jet fuel consumption. Chinese fuel exports are further underpinned by weak domestic demand. October loadings of clean fuels from Asia to the Americas surged to 715k tons in the week ending Oct. 31st, hitting a 3-year high. Looking forward, we expect that diesel cargoes from Asia will continue to flow toward the US East Coast, underpinned by current favorable market fundamentals.
Overall, while we should expect some support from Asian refiners to the US market, the EU’s looming sanctions on Russian oil products will once again drive the market on the edge, as Europe, which is still reliant on Russian diesel, will ultimately run short on the fuel and could possibly draw some cargoes from Asia, limiting thus supply for the US.
By Chara Georgousi,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 05 October 22
BUNKER PRICES DOWN AGAIN; IS THERE MORE TO COME? - INTEGR8 FUELS
It’s the economy…..”
VLSFO prices are now back to levels at the start of this year. After all the extremes of thi ...
Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russ ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in thei ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
OIL PRICES COULD SOON RETURN TO $100 AS OPEC+ CONSIDERS ‘HISTORIC’ CUT, ANALYSTS SAY - CNBC
An influential alliance of some of the world’s most powerful oil producers is reportedly considering their largest output cut since the start ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGE AGAIN TO RECORD HIGH
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference reached another record high in October as Russia's war in Ukraine continues to spark a surge in c ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
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