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Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially thought to be an oil or gas crisis, turns out to be an unfolding diesel crisis, with scarce availability of the fuel and historically low inventories adding headwinds to an already tight market.
In the US, diesel inventories are hitting historically low levels. Albeit fuel shortages, especially on the East Coast, combined US exports of crude oil and products surged to 11.4m b/d in the week ending October 21st, according to EIA. But while the US government is concerned over the unfolding diesel crisis, it is draining the SPR which has zero impact on diesel production. Officials are concerned that the 1m-barrel reserve will not suffice to counter a severe disruption this winter and are mulling ways to bolster supplies. In the meantime, oil companies are facing pressure from the government to export less fuel and build domestic inventories, while Biden’s administration has not yet ruled out a possible curb on exports. US refineries’ crack margins from turning crude oil into diesel are skyrocketing. Meanwhile, diesel demand nationwide is showing signs of hitting the brakes, surging to its highest seasonal level since 2007, over the last month before dipping this past week. The fuel shortage, which is crucial for heating and trucking, will likely be exacerbated as colder weather forces consumers to increase consumption to heat up their homes.
In the meantime, two consecutive malfunctions in Europe’s biggest refinery, the Shell Pernis plant near Rotterdam, as well as refinery strikes in France have caused supply disruptions at a time when the continent can ill afford it, given the upcoming EU ban on purchases of refined petroleum from Russia that’s due to start in early February.
On the other hand, a bullish combination of recently granted fuel export quotas from the Chinese government to domestic refineries and the end of refinery maintenance work in some major Asian refineries are set to provide some relief to the current market tightness by lifting global refinery processing rates. More specifically, 290k b/d of refining capacity in South Korea will return from maintenance in November, while India’s planned maintenance procedures will resume by December. Meanwhile, China’s refiners have been utilizing the government’s export quotas and have been opting for higher prices overseas. Diesel output surged by 22% m/m to a historical high of 17m tons this month. This comes as a response to reviving diesel demand and collapsing jet fuel consumption. Chinese fuel exports are further underpinned by weak domestic demand. October loadings of clean fuels from Asia to the Americas surged to 715k tons in the week ending Oct. 31st, hitting a 3-year high. Looking forward, we expect that diesel cargoes from Asia will continue to flow toward the US East Coast, underpinned by current favorable market fundamentals.
Overall, while we should expect some support from Asian refiners to the US market, the EU’s looming sanctions on Russian oil products will once again drive the market on the edge, as Europe, which is still reliant on Russian diesel, will ultimately run short on the fuel and could possibly draw some cargoes from Asia, limiting thus supply for the US.
By Chara Georgousi,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equ ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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