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Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially thought to be an oil or gas crisis, turns out to be an unfolding diesel crisis, with scarce availability of the fuel and historically low inventories adding headwinds to an already tight market.
In the US, diesel inventories are hitting historically low levels. Albeit fuel shortages, especially on the East Coast, combined US exports of crude oil and products surged to 11.4m b/d in the week ending October 21st, according to EIA. But while the US government is concerned over the unfolding diesel crisis, it is draining the SPR which has zero impact on diesel production. Officials are concerned that the 1m-barrel reserve will not suffice to counter a severe disruption this winter and are mulling ways to bolster supplies. In the meantime, oil companies are facing pressure from the government to export less fuel and build domestic inventories, while Biden’s administration has not yet ruled out a possible curb on exports. US refineries’ crack margins from turning crude oil into diesel are skyrocketing. Meanwhile, diesel demand nationwide is showing signs of hitting the brakes, surging to its highest seasonal level since 2007, over the last month before dipping this past week. The fuel shortage, which is crucial for heating and trucking, will likely be exacerbated as colder weather forces consumers to increase consumption to heat up their homes.
In the meantime, two consecutive malfunctions in Europe’s biggest refinery, the Shell Pernis plant near Rotterdam, as well as refinery strikes in France have caused supply disruptions at a time when the continent can ill afford it, given the upcoming EU ban on purchases of refined petroleum from Russia that’s due to start in early February.
On the other hand, a bullish combination of recently granted fuel export quotas from the Chinese government to domestic refineries and the end of refinery maintenance work in some major Asian refineries are set to provide some relief to the current market tightness by lifting global refinery processing rates. More specifically, 290k b/d of refining capacity in South Korea will return from maintenance in November, while India’s planned maintenance procedures will resume by December. Meanwhile, China’s refiners have been utilizing the government’s export quotas and have been opting for higher prices overseas. Diesel output surged by 22% m/m to a historical high of 17m tons this month. This comes as a response to reviving diesel demand and collapsing jet fuel consumption. Chinese fuel exports are further underpinned by weak domestic demand. October loadings of clean fuels from Asia to the Americas surged to 715k tons in the week ending Oct. 31st, hitting a 3-year high. Looking forward, we expect that diesel cargoes from Asia will continue to flow toward the US East Coast, underpinned by current favorable market fundamentals.
Overall, while we should expect some support from Asian refiners to the US market, the EU’s looming sanctions on Russian oil products will once again drive the market on the edge, as Europe, which is still reliant on Russian diesel, will ultimately run short on the fuel and could possibly draw some cargoes from Asia, limiting thus supply for the US.
By Chara Georgousi,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 04 November 22
CHINA EXPANDS COAL TERM CONTRACTS TO ALL MINES TO STABILIZE MARKET - REUTERS
China has expanded long-term thermal coal supply contracts for 2023 to all coal mines and asked power utilities to source more of their demand thro ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
HANDYSIZE VALUES MOVING UP IN OCTOBER, WHILE LNG VALUES SKYROCKET - VESSELSVALUE
Handysize values have increased this month across most ages, following a period of decline. Values for generic 10 year old Handysizes have moved up ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
EUROPEAN GAS SUPPLY SURPLUS, NOVEMBER HBA DOWN TO US$ 308.2 PER TON - ESDM
European gas supply conditions have a major influence in determining fluctuations in the Reference Coal Price (HBA). The November 2022 HBA recorded ...
Tuesday, 01 November 22
CHINA COAL TRADE DISRUPTED BY COVID OUTBREAKS AS WINTER LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s strict COVID-19 policy is constraining coal supplies and pushing up prices, industry officials and traders say, just weeks before the ...
Monday, 31 October 22
U.S. COAL-FIRED GENERATION DECLINING AFTER BRIEF RISE LAST YEAR - EIA
We expect 6% less U.S. coal-fired generation in 2022 than in 2021, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Although coal-fired ge ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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