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Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially thought to be an oil or gas crisis, turns out to be an unfolding diesel crisis, with scarce availability of the fuel and historically low inventories adding headwinds to an already tight market.
In the US, diesel inventories are hitting historically low levels. Albeit fuel shortages, especially on the East Coast, combined US exports of crude oil and products surged to 11.4m b/d in the week ending October 21st, according to EIA. But while the US government is concerned over the unfolding diesel crisis, it is draining the SPR which has zero impact on diesel production. Officials are concerned that the 1m-barrel reserve will not suffice to counter a severe disruption this winter and are mulling ways to bolster supplies. In the meantime, oil companies are facing pressure from the government to export less fuel and build domestic inventories, while Biden’s administration has not yet ruled out a possible curb on exports. US refineries’ crack margins from turning crude oil into diesel are skyrocketing. Meanwhile, diesel demand nationwide is showing signs of hitting the brakes, surging to its highest seasonal level since 2007, over the last month before dipping this past week. The fuel shortage, which is crucial for heating and trucking, will likely be exacerbated as colder weather forces consumers to increase consumption to heat up their homes.
In the meantime, two consecutive malfunctions in Europe’s biggest refinery, the Shell Pernis plant near Rotterdam, as well as refinery strikes in France have caused supply disruptions at a time when the continent can ill afford it, given the upcoming EU ban on purchases of refined petroleum from Russia that’s due to start in early February.
On the other hand, a bullish combination of recently granted fuel export quotas from the Chinese government to domestic refineries and the end of refinery maintenance work in some major Asian refineries are set to provide some relief to the current market tightness by lifting global refinery processing rates. More specifically, 290k b/d of refining capacity in South Korea will return from maintenance in November, while India’s planned maintenance procedures will resume by December. Meanwhile, China’s refiners have been utilizing the government’s export quotas and have been opting for higher prices overseas. Diesel output surged by 22% m/m to a historical high of 17m tons this month. This comes as a response to reviving diesel demand and collapsing jet fuel consumption. Chinese fuel exports are further underpinned by weak domestic demand. October loadings of clean fuels from Asia to the Americas surged to 715k tons in the week ending Oct. 31st, hitting a 3-year high. Looking forward, we expect that diesel cargoes from Asia will continue to flow toward the US East Coast, underpinned by current favorable market fundamentals.
Overall, while we should expect some support from Asian refiners to the US market, the EU’s looming sanctions on Russian oil products will once again drive the market on the edge, as Europe, which is still reliant on Russian diesel, will ultimately run short on the fuel and could possibly draw some cargoes from Asia, limiting thus supply for the US.
By Chara Georgousi,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 18 November 22
REALITIES OF LOI LIABILITIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The cargo misdelivery claim in Trafigura Maritime Logistics Pte Ltd v. Clearlake Shipping Pte Ltd (Miracle Hope) [2022] E ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
CHINA SEES RISING COAL STORAGE AMID SUPPLY PUSH - XINHUA
Coal stockpiles at China’s power plants have seen considerable increases, ensuring energy supply for the winter, the country’s energy r ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
SEABORNE THERMAL COAL PRICES START TO EASE, BUT PROCESS IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Prices for seaborne thermal coal have started to drop as fears of a winter energy crunch ease, but the rate of decline has varied across the differ ...
Thursday, 10 November 22
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS HAVE ADEQUATE COAL STOCKS AT 25.6 MILLION TONNES, SAYS GOVT - IANS
The coal stock with domestic dry fuel-based power plants, as on October 31, was 25.6 million tonnes, the government said, adding that the availabil ...
Tuesday, 08 November 22
OUTLOOK ON CHINA’S WEAKENED BASIC MATERIALS SECTOR CLOUDED BY POLICY SWINGS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects basic materials demand in China to improve qoq in 4Q22, driven by seasonally higher construction activity, solid infrastructu ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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